The “St. Louis Cardinals Way” does not exist anymore, or at least at this current moment. Back-to-back seasons without a playoff appearance indicate that it is time for a change. The organization has every reason to initiate a rebuild and start preparing for a National League Central division that should become quite interesting in the next few years. Trading Nolan Arenado would obviously be a big part of that blueprint. It is not so simple, however; St. Louis is hampered by multiple hefty contracts that should be difficult to move. Arenado’s deal is actually fairly palatable, specifically after the 2025 campaign. Although ownership is apparently open to shipping out the eight-time All-Star third baseman and starting pitcher Sonny Gray in an effort to shed payroll, the market might suggest that it is more beneficial to simply run it back with the present core. 
Those admittedly sound like the ramblings of a delusional man or hopelessly optimistic Redbirds fan, but I assure you I am neither. The Cardinals will struggle to move Gray and Wilson Contreras– the former will make $60 million across the next two seasons and the latter will collect more than $54 million by the end of 2027. Even if both stars agree to waive their no-trade clauses, which may not be the case, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak will be faced with a dilemma. The longtime executive will likely have to prioritize either maximizing return value or cutting cost. He will not be able to have his cake and eat it too, unless one of the high rollers is feeling extremely desperate this offseason. The Cardinals know the offers are bound to be underwhelming, and are therefore tempted to complete their objective via Arenado.
The five-time Silver Slugger will turn 34 years of age in the early portion of the 2025 MLB season and is already in the midst of a sharp offensive decline. He has posted a .774 and .719 OPS in each of the last two years, respectively, falling well below his .857 career output. Teams could be hesitant to fork over a promising prospect or a $21 million salary for a player who might soon be completely in Father Time’s clutches.
Now, I want to make it clear that I can foresee an Arenado revival in 2025. He batted a respectable .272 with 16 home runs and 71 RBIs while playing excellent defense at the hot corner (nine outs above average, per Baseball Savant). It might only take a couple of tweaks for him to return to All-Star form. I fear front offices around the league will disagree with me, however.
A cooling trade market would give Mozeliak little incentive to deal away Arenado. Since the Cards cannot guarantee the swift departures of Gray, Contreras or Miles Nikolas, there is no point in rushing to part ways with an experienced ballplayer who will only be three seasons removed from earning an NL MVP runner-up finish. Yes, we all witnessed the consequences of staying loyal to Paul Goldschmidt, the winner of said MVP race, but Nolan Arenado is still young enough to remind fans of his offensive prowess. And if nothing else, his veteran presence in a youthful lineup is something the Cardinals should not discount. Believe it or not, this man can help the stagnating franchise get back on a pathway to prosperity.
When assessing the NL Central landscape, one can plausibly conclude that the Redbirds inspire the least amount of enthusiasm of the bunch. The Milwaukee Brewers have a credible culture in place, the Cincinnati Reds are bringing in future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona to elevate an intriguing club, the Chicago Cubs should be willing to spend and the Pittsburgh Pirates own the rights to the latest pitching phenom.
There is not much flare in St. Louis right now. What the Cardinals do possess, though, is crucial roster balance. Brendan Donovan is a dependable contact hitter (.280 batting average in 374 games), Masyn Winn could be a Gold Glove-level shortstop for the next decade, Alec Burleson adds some needed pop (21 homers and team-high 78 RBIs) and Lars Nootbaar has the ability to be an invaluable contributor if he can stay healthy. This grouping only refers to the younger position players, though.
If the 10-time Gold Glover (six-time Platinum) can figure out his swing, he can quickly return to being one of the better sluggers in the NL. That may seem like a big “if” for an aging star, but few active third baseman carry his qualifications.
Besides Arenado, there are plenty of other vets who could be part of a divisional championship run next year. While the Willson Contreras signing is understandably spawning feelings of regret, particularly because he is being moved to first base, the three-time All-Star is still brandishing a powerful bat. He hit 15 homers in 84 games last season while slugging .468. Contreras seems to have plenty left in the tank, and a permanent transition out of catcher could give him the chance to prove it.
St. Louis is not overly reliant on its offense, however. It can trust multiple pitchers to pace the team on the mound. Although Miles Nikolas is on a downward spiral from which he might not able to recover, Sonny Gray has the tools to improve upon the 3.84 ERA he recorded in 2024 (if he stays). The former Cy Young runner-up actually lowered his walk rate and raised his strikeout rate last year, but was a bit susceptible to the long ball (allowed a career-high 21 home runs).
Erick Feddie is enjoying a notable resurgence, and closer Ryan Helsley anchors a solid bullpen that ranked near the top of the NL. A sneaky lineup and underrated pitching staff puts the Cardinals in the playoff conversation. They just need to put everything together. Nolan Arenado could be their linchpin. When trade rumors start swirling, there is often no turning back. For the sake of this ballclub, though, a little second-guessing could lead to a surprise reawakening.
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