On Tuesday morning, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Boston Red Sox have signed reliever Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million contract. This will be Chapman’s fifth team since 2022, and his seventh in his soon-to-be 16-year career.
Chapman will bolster a beleaguered Boston bullpen that was in need of a power left-handed arm. The Red Sox bullpen finished last season with a 4.39 ERA, which was 24th in the league (and the numbers are worse if you sort by WHIP or batting average against). Chapman certainly won’t make the club any younger, as he will celebrate his 37th birthday prior to opening day.
Chapman was once one of the preeminent closers in major league baseball, saving as many as 38 games in both 2012 and 2013, and 37 in 2019. However, he last saved 30 games (exactly) in 2021, and only has 29 saves combined over the past three seasons. Chapman is an enigmatic pitcher who (a) has thrown the hardest pitch on record (105.8 MPH) in 2010, and (b) continues to throw at an above-average velocity, but (c) sometimes has no idea where it is going. His K/BB rate, which plateaued at 5.5 in 2016 and the Covid-shortened 2020 seasons, was a mere 2.51 last year. And over the past three seasons, it clocks in at 2.37. It might be fair to say that Chapman is half the pitcher he once was.
That said, his ERA over the same period is 3.68, while his FIP is 3.20, which accounts for a 115 ERA+. And his average fastball velocity has stayed within hundredths of points of 98 MPH since 2018, so he can obviously still chuck it.
By comparison, during his prime – from 2012 through 2016 – Chapman’s ERA was 1.84, his FIP was 1.68, and he had an ERA+ of 217, all with a very similar average fastball velocity. So something has changed.
Chapman was last an All-Star in 2021, his penultimate season with the Yankees. The Kansas City Royals signed Chapman prior to the 2023 season for $3.75 million with the idea that he might be useful trade bait later in the year. Their bet paid off, as they sent him to the Texas Rangers at the end of June for minor outfielder Roni Cabrera and future Royals’ ace Cole Ragans. Last year he signed a one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates (maybe with the same intention) for $10.5 million. The Pirates either didn’t want to, or couldn’t, move Chapman at the trade deadline, so they paid his whole contract, which was the largest on the entire team.
In 2016 Chapman served a 30-game suspension under MLB’s domestic violence policy after he allegedly choked his girlfriend and then fired a gun eight times in his garage after the altercation. The Chicago Cubs had no compunction about the incident or the morality of the player, as they traded for him at the 2016 deadline to help them break their 108-year World Series drought. It worked, as Chapman was an integral part of the Cubs’ bullpen down the stretch, in the playoffs, and in their World Series victory over Cleveland.
It may be that the Red Sox feel the same way – that victories trump virtue. Upon the announcement of the deal, Zack Scott, a former Red Sox assistant general manager, tweeted the following:
In 2022, prior to signing with the Royals, Chapman finished 19 games over 36.1 innings. He had a 4.46 ERA and a 4.57 FIP. His ERA+ was 89, which made him 11% below average. His K/BB rate was 1.54. For that, Kansas City paid him $3.75 million.
In 2023, Chapman got better pitching in Kansas City and Texas, finishing 18 games over 58.1 innings, with a 3.09 ERA and a 2.51 FIP. Those stats combined with his 2.86 K/BB rate gave him a 143 ERA+, and the Pirates rewarded him with a $10.5 million contract.
Last year in Pittsburgh, Chapman looked very similar to 2023, finishing 18 games over 61.2 innings. But all of his underlying metrics got slightly worse. He had a 3.79 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a 111 ERA+. His K/BB rate went down to 2.51. And yet the Red Sox believed that that performance merited a $250,000 raise from 2024, and nearly three times as much as the Royals paid in 2023.
Maybe Chapman will find the fountain of youth in the Back Bay and provide veteran leadership and a strong lefty alternative to Liam Hendriks, giving manager Alex Cora two hard-throwing weapons out of the pen, propelling Boston back to the post-season. Maybe Chapman’s underlying numbers will get worse and he will be a bust or traded for parts at the deadline. For the Red Sox, it’s only money, and only (father) time will tell.
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