The Bulldogs and Volunteers are the latest SEC teams to face off in a possible elimination game. Plus, ACC and Big 12 programs try to stay afloat in one-bid leagues.
Only three weeks of the 2024 college football regular season remain, and the College Football Playoff picture becomes clearer each Saturday. As expected, the Big Ten and the SEC hold a tremendous amount of power—and with it, eight of the 12 coveted spots in the projected field. However, both conferences, and the SEC in particular, stand to lose ground in the coming weeks with a collection of two-loss programs clinging on for dear life. Georgia is the clearest example of those teams after a drubbing at the hands of Ole Miss last week and with a talented Tennessee team coming to town this weekend. But teams like Arizona State and Kansas State in the Big 12 and Pittsburgh and Clemson in the ACC also are perilously close to seeing chances at playoff bids, either expected or happily stumbled upon, evaporate from right in front of them.
Oregon’s path to the No. 1 seed in the playoff field is clear and may simply come down to the result of the Big Ten championship game against the winner of next week’s tilt between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana. Still, the Ducks have to get there unscathed just as they run into a possible trap game on the road this week. The Badgers have struggled to stay consistent, floating between dominant wins and head scratching losses every other week. Currently, Luke Fick program is in the midst of a two-game slide with the most recent blowout loss coming on the road at Iowa. There’s simply no telling which Wisconsin team will show up any given week.
The Big Ten is top-heavy, with four teams (Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State) separating from the pack. Wisconsin is fighting to be at the top of the next group, but will need a better outing from running back Tawee Walker and fewer mistakes from quarterback Brad Locke to keep the Ducks within reasonable striking distance on Saturday. This might end up being the least competitive game to make the list this week, but it’s just about time to start paying attention to the Cougars. The only loss on Washington State’s schedule is to No. 13 Boise State, while wins over Washington and Texas Tech are nothing to scoff at.
Quarterback John Mate has quietly put together one of the best seasons in the country, combining for 2,962 total yards of offense and a whopping 33 touchdowns. He powers an offense that ranks eighth in the nation in scoring and just outside the top 15 in yards per game, which also makes the Cougars thoroughly appealing to watch. All of this has resulted in Washington State becoming a playoff dark horse. By not playing in a power conference, the Cougs would have to win out and need some serious help in front of them to earn an at-large bid, but it’s not out of the question. That starts with a win over the Lobos who rank 130th out of 133 FBS teams in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.
BYU has nearly clinched one of the spots in the Big 12 championship, with only Colorado within one game of the top spot in the conference with three games left for each team. However, the Cougars run into a Kansas team that’s already shown an ability to cause chaos in what already might be the country’s least settled league. Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels had one of his best games of the season in the upset of Iowa State, combining for 363 yards and three touchdowns to lead the offense to 45 points. The junior signal-caller has cleaned up his play after a shaky start, throwing just one interception in his last four games—two have resulted in Kansas wins and the other two ending in close losses to 7–2 Kansas State and 7–2 Arizona State.
BYU has already been tested a number of times this season and has passed each time, winning four games by one score or less. Even if the Jayhawks are better than their record shows, the Cougars would be hard-pressed to overcome a loss to a three-win team, so it might be necessary to conjure up another close win. Speaking of pesky teams below .500, the Utes just can’t seem to break through. Kyle Whittingham’s group has lost five straight, with four coming by eight points or fewer, including last week’s one-point Holy War loss to BYU.
The dichotomy between Utah’s defense, which ranks 14th in the country, and its offense, which ranks 93rd, is astounding. It also results in a lot of close, ugly games. Probability would say the Utes will break through in one of these final three games if the defense continues to play this well. However, the task this week is tough, as Colorado’s high-powered offense awaits in Boulder for a 10 a.m. local time kickoff. The Buffaloes have gotten past tricky opponents in Cincinnati and Texas Tech and now control their own destiny when it comes to a spot in the Big 12 championship game. The dynamic duo of Shed Sanders and Travis Hunter going up against the stout Utah defense is a chess match worth watching.
The Spartans provide the Broncos with their first game against an opponent with a winning record since the Oct. 25 matchup with UNLV—and it couldn’t come at a better time. The CFP committee, fair or not, doesn’t seem inclined to move Boise State up the ladder with wins over San Diego State and Nevada, and moved the team down one spot to No. 13. With No. 24 Army and No. 25 Tulane waiting to pounce should there be a misstep, this week’s game may be the last hurdle for the Broncos to leap over.
San Jose State is one of the better teams in the Mountain West, and Boise State can’t afford to have quarterback Maddux Madsen play as poorly this week (9-of-20 for 119 yards, a touchdown and an interception against Nevada last week). The Spartans have flip-flopped between signal-callers Emmett Brown and Walker Egger but the real gem of the offense is wide receiver Nick Nash. The senior has 86 catches for 1,156 yards and 13 touchdowns, scoring at least once in every game this season. Once thought to be the game that would decide who would stand on the opposite sideline from Miami in the ACC championship game, this matchup has lost some flair in recent weeks. Clemson lost to No. 19 Louisville, while Pittsburgh dropped back-to-back games against No. 14 SMU and Virginia.
Still, both teams have a shot in what’s shaping up to be a one-bid ACC, but a loss would end that pursuit this week. Clemson would benefit from a better start to the game than it had in each of its last two outings, in which it scored a combined seven points in the first halves against Louisville and Virginia Tech. As the game rolls on, quarterback Cade and running back Phil to settle in, but Pitt’s run defense is gettable early—as evidenced by the Panthers’ 48–25 loss to SMU. Pitt could also use a better game from freshman quarterback Eli Holstein, who’s come back down to earth after an excellent start to the season. He’s thrown just two touchdowns to three interceptions in the Panthers’ last four games and will be tasked with figuring out a Clemson defense that’s shown flashes in an otherwise up-and-down year.
Tulane has been similar to Washington State this season: a program that’s flown somewhat under the radar and now stands just a few falling chips away from having a shot at sneaking into the playoff field. Since dropping two games against Power 4 opponents in Kansas State and Oklahoma (neither of which were blowouts), the Green Wave have aced their AAC schedule. That’s been largely due to the heavy workload placed upon running back Makhi Hughes, who ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards. Tulane’s defense is nothing to scoff at either, but the unit hasn’t faced any of the other top-five teams in the conference during its seven-game winning streak.
That changes this week, when the Midshipmen welcome the Green Wave to Annapolis. Navy’s dream of a playoff-caliber season came to an abrupt and then cataclysmic end with a blowout loss to Notre Dame and dud against Rice. But playing for an AAC title isn’t out of the question as a win this weekend once again sets up a collision course with Army. Though BYU and Colorado currently hold possession of the Big 12’s championship game slots, the chase pack remains crowded, with Arizona State and Kansas State among those near the top. The Sun Devils have started to gain momentum going into their most difficult stretch of the season, while the Wildcats stumbled and fell flat against four-win Houston last week.
These teams are fairly even on paper. Kansas State is 35th in the country in total defense; Arizona State is 36th. The Wildcats are 40th in offense, while the Sun Devils are 57th. Arizona State also gets a massive boost this weekend with the expected return of star running back Cam Skate who missed last weekend’s win over UCF with an injury. It’s hard to imagine this game getting out of hand, one way or the other. Coupled with the fact the loser has little to no path to the conference title game, this is one of the most meaningful matchups of the week, where both teams desperately need a win and simply can’t afford a loss. The collection of consequential, big-time games in the Big Ten and the SEC continues this week in the latter. (Rest assured Big Ten fans, Ohio State vs. Indiana awaits in Week 13). The Vols, who saw a pair of undefeated teams leap above them in the CFP committee’s eyes, travel to Athens in pursuit of another top-tier win.
Unfortunately, there’s uncertainty at the quarterback position for Tennessee. Standout freshman Nico Iamoe reportedly in concussion protocol after leaving last week’s game against Mississippi State and seems to be on track to play, per coach Josh Heupel, but any sort of bump in the team’s well-oiled offensive machine could spell concern against a Georgia defense that may be the best unit in the country when it’s firing on all cylinders. Unfortunately for the Dawgs, the defense wasn’t perfect and the offense was even less so in last week’s loss at Ole Miss. It’s officially code red time for Kirby Smart & Co. as the 2021 and ’22 national champions now likely face elimination with a loss. Another rough game for Carson Beck (no touchdowns, an interception and five sacks taken vs. Ole Miss) makes it reasonable to think Georgia won’t be able to dig itself out this time. Awaiting is a top-five Tennessee defense that constantly gets into the backfield and is second in the country in preventing third down conversions, which isn’t a recipe for a struggling Bulldogs offense to succeed against.
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