Latest CFP rankings predictions: Should Indiana football be concerned about 2-loss SEC teams?

As the 2024 college football season nears its conclusion, one of the central debates among fans, analysts, and the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee is the positioning of two-loss SEC teams. Historically, the SEC has been one of the most dominant conferences in college football, and teams with two losses have often still found their way into the CFP. This raises a crucial question for Indiana football fans: Should they be concerned about two-loss SEC teams possibly securing a playoff spot over their team?

The Current State of the CFP Rankings

In December 2024, the CFP race is as competitive as ever, with teams like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington leading the rankings. However, the two-loss SEC teams, particularly those like Alabama and LSU, are creating potential chaos in the final weeks of the regular season. These teams have a couple of losses on their record, but their schedule strength and the overall power of the SEC make their inclusion in the CFP picture a real possibility.

The key concern for Indiana, a team from the Big Ten, is whether the CFP committee will prioritize the SEC’s strength of schedule and overall conference dominance over teams like Indiana, who may be fighting for a spot with a similar or even better record.

Why Two-Loss SEC Teams Pose a Threat

The SEC, with its deep roster of top-tier programs, is often viewed as the most competitive conference in college football. Even a two-loss team from the SEC carries a significant amount of weight in the eyes of the CFP committee for several reasons:

1. Strength of Schedule: SEC teams face a gauntlet of tough opponents week in and week out. Alabama, LSU, and other two-loss teams often play against the best in the nation, including top-ranked teams from their own conference. This high level of competition means that their losses are viewed more leniently by the committee. In contrast, a team like Indiana may have a respectable record but could be judged more harshly for losses against teams with fewer high-profile victories.
2. Impressive Wins and Strength of Conference: An SEC team that finishes with a couple of losses but has multiple wins over top-10 or top-20 teams has a significantly stronger resume than a team from another conference with a similar record. This is particularly true for a conference like the SEC, where almost every team has some level of national prominence.
3. Historical Bias: Historically, the SEC has been given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the playoff selection. The committee tends to prioritize the reputation and pedigree of SEC teams, with their strength of schedule and track record in mind. This has often resulted in teams like Alabama and LSU making the playoff despite losses that might have excluded teams from other conferences.
4. Brand Recognition: SEC teams have a long history of success in the College Football Playoff and national championships. Alabama, Georgia, and LSU, in particular, have built up enough of a brand to where even a two-loss record can be considered more acceptable than it would be for teams from other conferences.

How Does This Impact Indiana?

For Indiana, competing for a playoff spot alongside two-loss SEC teams presents a number of challenges. While the Hoosiers have made strides in recent years and had notable seasons under head coach Tom Allen, they don’t share the same national reputation or consistent level of talent as the SEC powers. Thus, even if Indiana finishes with a solid record or wins the Big Ten, they could find themselves on the outside looking in if a two-loss SEC team with key wins over ranked opponents is ahead of them in the rankings.

To truly have a chance, Indiana would need to:

1. Finish with One Loss or an Unbeaten Record: A one-loss Indiana team would likely need to be in the Big Ten Championship Game and would have to impress the committee with a strong overall resume, including big wins against ranked teams like Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State. If Indiana were to lose twice, it could be tough for them to compete with a two-loss SEC team due to their conference’s power.
2. Secure Quality Wins Over Ranked Opponents: Beating ranked teams in the Big Ten, particularly those in the upper echelon like Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State, would bolster Indiana’s resume significantly. This is essential if they hope to compare favorably with an SEC team that has multiple ranked wins, even with two losses.
3. Win the Big Ten Championship: Earning a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game would be crucial for Indiana’s playoff chances. If they were to win the conference outright, it would give them an undeniable case for inclusion, particularly if other conference champions or near-champions have two losses.

Should Indiana Be Concerned?

Yes, Indiana should be concerned about the possibility of a two-loss SEC team making the playoff over them, especially if that SEC team has an impressive schedule with multiple top-10 wins. The CFP committee’s bias towards SEC teams could prove to be a hurdle for Indiana, even if they finish with a strong record. The Hoosiers would need to put together a near-perfect season and make a strong case through their victories over highly ranked opponents. Additionally, finishing strong in the Big Ten Championship would significantly increase their chances of receiving a CFP bid.

In conclusion, while Indiana football has made great strides in recent years, the rise of two-loss SEC teams represents a significant challenge for them in their quest for a playoff spot. They will need to continue to perform at a high level and hope that their strength of schedule, coupled with big wins in the Big Ten, can convince the CFP committee to consider them over SEC teams with multiple losses.