The Minnesota Vikings must address their quarterback position long-term. And while 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy is on hand, he missed his entire rookie season. That could make 2024 starter Sam Darnold a safer option for the Vikings in 2025.
However, it does not guarantee that Darnold is the correct option.
That is especially true with the Vikings coming off a 14-win season amid the latest projections for Darnold’s next contract.
“Darnold’s 2024 is a rollercoaster ride we haven’t experienced at the QB position, with seemingly zero expectation to start, maximum output nearing the finish line, then a drop off of a cliff to end the season,” Spotrac’s Michael Ginnitti wrote on February 11.
“A tag to keep him in Minnesota is likely too expensive ($40M+), and with limited options of his age and ability set to become available this March, it’s fair to assume that at least one team will be ready to open their wallet for the former #3 overall pick. Darnold carries a 4 year, $160M projection in our system.”
Darnold, 27, signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings in free agency in 2024.
He completed 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions during a historic 2024 regular season and is due for a significant raise.
Vikings QB Sam Darnold Set to Cash In During 2025 Offseason
The 33rd Team’s Marcus Mosher projected Darnold to sign a three-year, $120 million deal. It is a considerably lower projection than Ginitti’s, underscoring Darnold’s polarizing status.
“Sam Darnold isn’t the best player on the market, but he’ll get the biggest contract because of the position he plays. In fact, he might make $10 million more per year than any other free agent. Still, he deserves it after having a career year with the Vikings in 2024,” Mosher wrote on February 13. “Darnold will also benefit from a weak quarterback class in the 2025 NFL Draft, which could lead a team like the Raiders to pay him now rather than wait for someone to fall to them. Darnold is only 27 but has a lot of experience, having started 73 games in the NFL.
“The best landing spot would be with a veteran coach and a roster full of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but considering he hasn’t earned a big payday yet in the NFL, the money could ultimately dictate where he lands.”
Over The Cap projects the Vikings will have $58 million in space this offseason.
They can create more with cuts, extensions, and restructures. But it would be a significant commitment to Darnold nonetheless, and it represents a drop from earlier projections.
“Prediction: The Vikings apply a $39M+ franchise tag on Sam Darnold,” Ginnitti wrote in January before the QB slumped. “Darnold and the Vikings agree on a 4 year, $196M extension before the July 15 deadline that includes $110M guaranteed.”
Despite Darnold’s late-season struggles, positional value is in his favor.
“In a league of quarterback-starved teams, Darnold should command a mega deal if he hits the market, which is likely,” CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco wrote on February 14. “The Vikings probably won’t bring him back after drafting J.J. McCarthy in the first round last year, only to see him suffer a knee injury in training camp. The Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans could be spots for Darnold, who will likely command a deal that pays an average of close to $40 million per season.
“Would I pay that? I do think it’s risky, but if you don’t have a quarterback, you better get one.”
Prisco noted that teams do a better job of retaining top talent. That could help free up cap space for Darnold elsewhere, with the New York Giants also in play. That is why the Vikings’ position on the matter remains a source of intrigue around the league.
QB Remains Biggest Question Mark for Vikings
“How Minnesota allocates its healthy cap trove will be worth monitoring this offseason. The big question: Do the Vikings pay Sam Darnold? They haven’t made a firm determination on this, but many around the league see them starting over with J.J. McCarthy if a new suitor prices Darnold out of Minnesota,” ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote on February 12.
“The Vikings won’t mortgage their future on a free agent quarterback contract.”
Fowler listed the Vikings under the “Need a Postseason Breakthrough” heading on his offseason rebuilding tiers. Consistent QB play could put them over the top.
“What will happen at quarterback?” ESPN’s Kevin Seifert wrote on February 13. “Everything in Minnesota hinges on whether the team brings back Sam Darnold, who produced a career-best season at age 27. If not, will the Vikings turn the keys over to J.J. McCarthy, who sat out the 2024 season because of a torn meniscus in his right knee? Or will they sign another veteran, perhaps free agent Daniel Jones who joined the team late in the season, to start in 2025 or until McCarthy is ready?
“Retaining Darnold could require the franchise tag, which would consume nearly $40 million in cap space and limit the options for building a team around him. But are the Vikings willing to let the quarterback who led them to 14 victories walk out the door for nothing?”
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