DETROIT, MICHIGAN - NOVEMBER 20: A Buffalo Bills helmet is pictured during the game against the Cleveland Browns at Ford Field on November 20, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
Regretfully, I was unable to produce post-game content for the Buffalo Bills’ Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs due to unforeseen circumstances. Now that the game is safely behind us, it’s time to move on to season summaries, funny offseason material, and before you know it, content that will anticipate the 2024 NFL season. This is my first attempt at writing a 2023 season summary. I give you the Buffalo Bills deep-middle passing game of 2023—a blatant outlier.
Dalton Kincaid Touchdown
I’d like to start our examination of the Buffalo Bills’ deep-middle passing game for 2023 with what is likely the team’s best play of the year in this regard. Dalton Kincaid’s 29-yard touchdown reception helped Buffalo defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers on NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.
Regretfully, I was unable to produce post-game content for the Buffalo Bills’ Divisional Round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs due to unforeseen circumstances..” This is significant because the league is specifically trying to filter out throws where YAC inflated the outcome and include plays where the intention was to throw deep (not that YAC is a negative thing, #amiright Stefon Diggs?).
Josh Allen threw this throw 25 yards into the air, and Dalton Kincaid scored four yards after the catch. So why am I using this pass as a stand-in for the season, one might ask?
For the entire season, only one deep middle pass was completed.
That is correct, really. All year long, the Buffalo Bills managed to complete just one throw to the deep-middle part of the field. These play-direction charts that I receive from the NFL are nothing new to you, so let’s review a few of them. To let you to switch between the regular and postseason photos whenever you’d like, I’ll utilise a slider image.
Late in the regular season, I discovered this oddity and made the decision to monitor it. For the majority of teams, they are undoubtedly low-percentage passes, but 0% is the definition of low percentage.
The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans both had at least a 66.67% rating in comparison to the league. With a completion percentage of 70.59%, the Miami Dolphins were the league leaders. You can assume that the statistics are distorted and they just had less efforts. With 16 and 17 attempts, respectively, the Lions and Dolphins made comparable attempts with Buffalo. The Texans made 33 throws, thriving on these opportunities.
The 49ers’ need for another last second miracle deserves a deep rewind
With 22.22% completed, the Atlanta Falcons were the second-worst team. They made 18 attempts, thus even during the regular season, they succeeded on four deep-middle passes. Yes, they are low-percentage plays across the board, but Buffalo was clearly weaker than the others in this regard.
Speaking of attempts, the 21st falls inside the typical range using my rule of four, even though the Bills were below average on this kind of play. After 34 attempts, the Green Bay Packers finished first in the league (completing nearly half). With five attempts, the Los Angeles Chargers were the lowest. They finished three of them.
This has resonated with me because NFL games are usually close affairs where a play or two can decide the game’s destiny. We would have preferred to see the Bills win more games, but none by more than six points. Would their fates have been different with a deep-middle pass? Let’s quickly review the losses:
Week 1: In their overtime loss to the New York Jets, Buffalo refrained from attempting a deep-middle pass. There’s no way this game can turn out otherwise.
Week 5: Allen again failed to try any deep passes against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and London was likewise not having a deep-middle kind of day.
Week 7: Towards the end of the third quarter, Buffalo tried a deep-middle pass in a defeat to the New England Patriots. Although they did manage to convert a handful of first downs during the drive, it took up an additional four minutes and resulted in no points. With an extra minute remaining in the game, the Bills can avoid attempting their second deep middle pass of the day. If the second one had been discovered, Buffalo would have
Week 9: Against the Cincinnati Bengals, a wide receiver Deonte Harty pass in the second quarter would have shifted the game’s direction and maybe the field of play. With plenty of the game remaining, the Bengals were already ahead by 14, but an early confidence boost may have been significant.
Week 10: Against the Denver Broncos, the Bills did not try a deep pass.
Week 12: Against the Philadelphia Eagles, there was a single deep pass in the second quarter. The pass was incomplete on third down, and there would have been a good chance that another touchdown was scored before halftime. Time constraints might have prevented another touchdown before the half, but it’s also feasible that the Bills lead by more points at the break.
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