Just take a look at the champions to be reminded of how the NFL free agent market may assist teams in winning a Super Bowl. Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, the two tackles, as well as Marcellus Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson, two of the Chiefs’ top three wideouts, were among their four offensive free agent additions. If not for a pectoral injury, guard Joe Thuney, who was an All-Pro during the season, would have been a fifth player.
The Chiefs’ other free agent addition, Tyrann Mathieu, was skillfully replaced by safety Justin Reid, who was a standout on defence. Beside him, Mike Edwards lined up and participated in almost every snap. Players further down the lineup, including Drue Tranquill and Mike Pennel, had an impact up front.
Consider the four-year, $25.4 million contract that running back Miles Sanders signed with the Panthers in mid-March of last year. It was predictable that he would lose efficiency in the absence of Jalen Hurts and a top-three offensive line, even though we couldn’t have predicted that his performance would completely collapse outside of Philadelphia. Examining the contracts of running backs throughout the league also revealed that over the spring and summer, some of them would become cap casualties. Even though those backs weren’t all that spectacular, at least they didn’t require two years’ worth of guarantees totaling $11 million. Astute companies understand their market. Those who are foolish react.
But what will the market actually look like in 2024? I’m going position by position over the next two weeks, determining what
But what will the market actually look like in 2024? I’ll be breaking down each position and tier-by-tier describing what free agency would entail around the league over the course of the next two weeks. You’ll be able to see how many players at each level are truly going to be available this offseason for each slot in the lineup, both as unrestricted free agents and possible cap-related departures. In addition, I’ll discuss which clubs to anticipate being in the market at certain times and what kind of agreements those players should anticipate getting. After all, a team’s salary may have virtually as much impact as the players they recruit.
Three positions to start with are tight ends, quarterbacks, and offensive linemen. These are not jobs.
A quarterback of this calibre rarely becomes an unrestricted free agent. Players recovering from injuries (Drew Brees, 2006), those in their late 30s or older (Tom Brady, 2020), or both (Peyton Manning, 2012) are frequently the exceptions. Kurt Warner may be the only exception in this case, as his play had gotten worse with the Giants and Rams before picking back up after signing a contract with the Cardinals in 2005.
Starters deserving of a Pro Bowl
Vikings and Kirk Cousins are free agents.
Though he’s still rehabbing from his first major injury—he tore his right Achilles in late October—cousins is without a doubt the greatest quarterback available. Cousins’ 63.6 QBR prior to the injury was eighth in the league. Over the first half of the season, his 11.2% off-target percentage was the highest, and he accomplished this without Justin Jefferson for a significant portion of it.
When Cousins was a free agent previously, he used his clout to negotiate a three-year contract with a fully guaranteed $84 million. He used the contract, along with Minnesota’s need for cap relief, to his advantage after two seasons to land two more deals. Over his six seasons with the Vikings, he made a total of $185 million, or slightly less than $31 million a season.
Cousins should be pursued by any team that wants to win in the next three years and isn’t positioned to select one of the top starters in the 2024 draft. The Broncos, Buccaneers, Falcons, Raiders, Steelers, and Titans are among those teams; the Dolphins and Seahawks are outside candidates if they decide to move on from their present starting lineup. A few of them
Average annual salary projection: $51 million per season
Potential cap casualties: Broncos and Russell Wilson
This is where our first cap casualty occurs, and not much projection is required. In order to prevent an injury from triggering Wilson’s $37 million contract for 2025, the Broncos benched him at the end of the season. They probably will cut him before free agency starts, even though they owe him $39 million more in guarantees for 2024. Denver will have paid Wilson $124 million over the course of two seasons, in addition to forfeiting numerous first-round selections in order to obtain him.
Wilson was unsatisfactory and will never earn this kind of money again, but he was a capable low-ceiling starter behind an unhelpful Broncos offensive line. The one-time star of the Seahawks didn’t
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Gardner Minshew, Colts; Ryan Tannehill, Titans; Joe Flacco, Browns; Joey Brissett, Commanders; Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers; Jameis Winston, Saints
Potential cap casualties: Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo
This is the passing-through tier, which is typically made up of players that performed incredibly well in 2023 or who significantly underperformed. Mayfield and Minshew demonstrated their ability to guide underdog teams to victory, and Flacco’s heroics in the latter stages of the season helped Cleveland salvage a winning record despite being their fourth quarterback. Brissett and Winston finished their seasons on the bench, while Garoppolo and Tannehill were fired before Halloween and never really looked back.
Mayfield and Minshew may be regarded as a level higher based only on their 2023 credentials, and it’s plausible that a team would see them as that kind of quarterback and pay them accordingly.
For their 2023 teams, a few quarterbacks in this category are likely more valuable than others. In order to prevent more than $10 million in dead money from Winston’s previous contract from exceeding their cap, the Saints ought to want to re-sign him. Mayfield appeared to settle in with the Bucs. Once top 2023 draft pick Anthony Richardson returns from injury, Minshew won’t be the starting quarterback in Indianapolis, but if he’s going to be a backup somewhere, it might as well be in Indianapolis. Though he won’t be going back to the Raiders, Garoppolo’s most likely route appears to be back to New England as the bridge quarterback to whoever the Patriots choose with the third overall choice.
Projected average yearly salary: $9 million to
Tier 5: Backups with a chance of earning guaranteed funds
Sam Darnold (49ers); Drew Lock (Seahawks); Marcus Mariota (Eagles); Tyrod Taylor (Giants); Carson Wentz (Rams) are free agents.
These quarterbacks will be the first available to teams (perhaps over half of the league) who are searching for experienced backups. With the exception of Wentz, the majority of these players received significant guarantees on their most recent contract. Although his short stint with the Rams is unlikely to have a significant impact, his draft history and the generally positive feedback from his stay in Los Angeles should get him a backup position elsewhere.
Players in this grade will typically have difficulty landing the kinds of deals they
Estimated average yearly salary: $4 million to $7 million per season
Tier 6: Backups with a chance to make the squad
Free agents: Mason Rudolph, Steelers; Nate Sudfeld, Lions; Mitch Trubisky, Steelers; Blaine Gabbert, Chiefs; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Joshua Dobbs, Vikings
Potential cap casualties: Falcons’ Taylor Heinicke
Players in this final tier should be able to make NFL squads, but they will only have a small amount of guaranteed money when they sign, so they will have to fight for positions on the roster during training camp. The two players in this group with the greatest obvious production are Dobbs and Rudolph, but Dobbs didn’t draw much attention when he was available in 2023. Rudolph’s short spurt of creativity was inconsistent with his previous
